Baccarat vs Blackjack: Which Game Has Better Odds?
Baccarat vs Blackjack: Which Game Has Better Odds?
When you walk into a casino, two card games stand out for having some of the best odds: Baccarat and Blackjack. But which one actually gives you a better chance of winning? Let's break down the mathematics.
The House Edge Comparison
**Baccarat (Banker Bet):** 1.06% house edge
**Blackjack (Basic Strategy):** 0.5% house edge
At first glance, Blackjack appears superior. And mathematically, it is — but there's a critical caveat: **you must play perfect basic strategy** to achieve that 0.5% edge. Make mistakes, and the house edge quickly climbs to 2-3% or higher.
Baccarat, on the other hand, requires zero skill. You simply bet on Banker or Player, and the 1.06% edge on Banker bets remains constant regardless of your decisions.
Volatility and Variance
Baccarat has **lower volatility** than Blackjack. Since you're making simple even-money bets (minus a 5% commission on Banker wins), your bankroll experiences smoother swings.
Blackjack offers **higher variance** due to:
- Splitting pairs
- Doubling down
- Blackjack payouts (3:2 or 6:5)
- Insurance bets
This means larger short-term swings in both directions. You can win big faster, but you can also lose your bankroll more quickly.
Skill vs Simplicity
**Blackjack requires:**
- Memorizing basic strategy charts
- Making correct decisions under pressure
- Avoiding insurance and side bets
- Maintaining discipline through variance
**Baccarat requires:**
- Choosing "Banker" (and occasionally "Player")
- Nothing else
If you deviate from basic strategy in Blackjack — hitting when you should stand, not splitting pairs correctly, taking insurance — you're likely giving the casino a **bigger edge than Baccarat**.
Speed of Play
Baccarat is typically faster, with 70-80 hands per hour at a full table.
Blackjack averages 50-60 hands per hour.
More hands per hour means **more money at risk**. Even with a lower house edge, faster play can increase your expected loss rate.
The Verdict
**Choose Blackjack if:**
- You've mastered basic strategy
- You enjoy decision-making
- You want the absolute lowest house edge
- You can handle higher variance
**Choose Baccarat if:**
- You want simplicity
- You prefer lower volatility
- You don't want to memorize strategy
- You're playing casually
The Math of Bankroll Depletion
Let's simulate a 5-hour session with $1,000 bankroll and $25 bets:
**Blackjack (perfect basic strategy):**
- Expected loss: ~$62.50
- Bust risk (moderate variance): ~15%
**Baccarat (Banker bets):**
- Expected loss: ~$66.25
- Bust risk (low variance): ~8%
Despite Baccarat's slightly higher expected loss, **lower variance means lower bust risk** for the same bankroll size.
What About Card Counting?
Card counting in Blackjack can flip the edge to the player's favor (0.5-1.5% advantage). However:
- It requires significant skill and practice
- Casinos actively ban suspected counters
- Modern shoe penetration limits effectiveness
- It's mentally exhausting
For the average player, **card counting isn't realistic**.
Common Mistakes to Avoid
**In Blackjack:**
- Never take insurance (5.9% house edge)
- Avoid 6:5 Blackjack tables (1.4% higher edge)
- Don't play drunk or tired
**In Baccarat:**
- Never bet "Tie" (14.4% house edge)
- Stick to Banker or Player only
- Ignore pattern tracking myths
The Real Answer
Both games offer excellent odds compared to slots, roulette, or craps. The "better" choice depends on your skill level and preferences.
**Bottom line:** If you can execute perfect basic strategy without errors, Blackjack edges out Baccarat by 0.56%. But if you're playing casually and want simplicity, Baccarat's consistent 1.06% edge is hard to beat.
Try It Yourself
Use our simulator to compare both games side-by-side. Run 1,000 hands of each with the same bankroll and betting strategy. You'll see how the house edge and variance play out in practice.
Remember: **No betting strategy changes the house edge**. Martingale, Fibonacci, and other systems don't work on either game. The math is unbeatable in the long run.